January 2008
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Update: added final Democrat results from IowaCaucusResults.com and near-final Republican results adapted from IowaGOP.net and USA Today's table.
Quick summary: Elliott correctly called Obama's poll-defying upset, though did less well on the GOP side.
I'll let Confederate Yankee introduce this post: Stunning Iowa Prediction:
Coming from anyone else I'd not give these numbers a second look, but Elliott's track record speaks for itself when using his formulas.
He is however, using his intuition instead of a formula for this particular prediction, so keep that in consideration.
Here's the prediction from Scott Elliott of Election Projection ("EP"); I added the latest RealClearPolitics poll average:
| EP | RCP | actual | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republicans (1716 of 1781 precincts reporting) | ||||||
| Mike Huckabee | 30% | 29.7% | 34.29% | |||
| Mitt Romney | 19% | 26.7% | 25.32% | |||
| Fred Thompson | 18% | 11.7% | 13.37% | |||
| Ron Paul | 14% | 7.3% | 9.99% | |||
| John McCain | 13% | 11.8% | 13.13% | |||
| Rudy Giuliani | 5% | 6.0% | 3.46% | |||
| Democrats | ||||||
| Barack Obama | 38% | 30.8% | 37.58% | |||
| John Edwards | 29% | 26.0% | 29.75% | |||
| Hillary Clinton | 25% | 29.2% | 29.47% | |||
| Bill Richardson | 5% | 5.2% | 2.11% | |||
| Joe Biden | 2% | 5.4% | 0.93% | |||
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